{
  "example_kind": "original synthetic manual planning case",
  "slug": "forecast-rolling-origin-evaluation",
  "title": "Plan a rolling-origin task forecast evaluation",
  "scenario": "Synthetic planning case: A toy one-step forecast plan uses observations through day three to predict day four, then through day four to predict day five, and through day five to predict day six.",
  "layout": "protocol",
  "dataset": {
    "heading": "Inspect the invented case records",
    "headers": [
      "Forecast origin",
      "Allowed observations",
      "Held-out target",
      "Horizon"
    ],
    "rows": [
      [
        "Day 3",
        "Days 1–3",
        "Day 4",
        "One step"
      ],
      [
        "Day 4",
        "Days 1–4",
        "Day 5",
        "One step"
      ],
      [
        "Day 5",
        "Days 1–5",
        "Day 6",
        "One step"
      ]
    ]
  },
  "derivation": "There are three prospective origin/target pairs. At each origin, the target day is excluded from fitting; earlier observed targets can become allowed history at a later origin.",
  "result": "Each outcome stays beyond its own fitting cutoff while the one-step horizon remains fixed. Keep all three origins rather than letting a later fitted rule retrospectively see earlier held-out outcomes.",
  "boundary": "The artifact plans repeated prospective cutoffs at a fixed horizon, rather than a single held-out split or hindsight replacement.",
  "limitations": "Actual features, fitting procedure and outcome timing must respect the cutoff. No native forecasting workflow is asserted.",
  "sources": [
    "forecast-crossval"
  ],
  "tasks": [
    [
      "Freeze each origin boundary",
      "Evaluation planner",
      "Every prediction has its own allowed information cutoff."
    ],
    [
      "Match the evaluation horizon",
      "Reviewer",
      "All three target records describe one-step predictions."
    ],
    [
      "Retain genuine origin forecasts",
      "Recorder",
      "Later fits do not overwrite the saved earlier predictions or their input boundaries."
    ]
  ],
  "faqs": [
    [
      "Can day-four observations be used at the day-four origin?",
      "Yes once observed and allowed; they could not be used in the earlier day-three prediction of day four."
    ],
    [
      "Does three-origin coverage establish future accuracy?",
      "No. This plan defines evaluation boundaries, not a validated performance result."
    ]
  ],
  "method_references": [
    {
      "id": "forecast-crossval",
      "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice — time series cross-validation",
      "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/tscv.html",
      "scope": "Rolling-origin evaluation context only. The explicit origins, observations and errors here are invented original examples, not validated model results."
    }
  ]
}