Retain the declared grouping
Owner role · Evaluation owner
Evidence: A and B membership is recorded independently of outcomes.
Forecast evaluation / Delivery leads, planning owners and acceptance reviewers
Drafting workbenchInspect forecast probabilities by relevant work group
Retain conditional group results when an aggregate probability comparison hides different behavior.
The artifact exposes unequal-size group behavior concealed by an aggregate probability comparison.
Opens the current invite-request page. Access is subject to approval; this example is not imported automatically.
Original worked case · Manual planning resource
Inspect the decision, not just the summary.
Start with the invented evidence, follow the reasoning, and retain its limits when adapting the brief.
02 · Follow the reasoning
How the case leads to a decision
Aggregate observed fraction is 8/12≈66.7%, versus a mean supplied prediction of 80%. Group A’s observed fraction happens to match 0.8; group B’s does not. Twelve outcomes, especially a two-case subgroup, cannot establish stable calibration.
The bounded result
Show group A at 8/10 and group B at 0/2 beside the aggregate 8/12. Neither the small group results nor the aggregate establish calibrated future forecasts.
01 · Inspect the inputs
Every record stays visible
| Group | Cases | Predicted success probability per case | Observed successes | Observed fraction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 10 | 0.8 | 8 | 80% |
| B | 2 | 0.8 | 0 | 0% |
| Combined | 12 | 0.8 | 8 | 66.7% rounded |
Use horizontal scrolling for wide tables. These records are invented, not customer data.
Definitions and method context
Records, decisions and policies are original synthetic examples. External references supply context; they do not validate these cases or TeamBoostAI capabilities.
Original worked-case definitions
Definitions, policy choices, records and calculations are authored for this worksheet. No external standard, statistical validation or live product measurement is claimed.
External references checked 6 October 2026. Demand for these topics has not been measured.
Prepare a brief for human review
Drafting workbenchSynthetic planning case: Twelve binary forecasts each assign 0.8 to success. Group A has ten cases and eight successes; group B has two cases and zero successes. A report hides groups inside a single result.
Compute denominators visibly
Owner role · Reviewer
Evidence: Group results use ten and two; aggregate uses twelve without averaging group percentages equally.
Bound the calibration interpretation
Owner role · Planning lead
Evidence: Mismatch is a descriptive finding needing more justified evaluation, not proof about people or future tasks.
Decision to make: Show group A at 8/10 and group B at 0/2 beside the aggregate 8/12. Neither the small group results nor the aggregate establish calibrated future forecasts.
Use the downloaded brief as planning input. AI suggestions remain proposals; review scope, owners and acceptance evidence yourself.
Filled manual planning note
Invented planning text. Adapt it to your evidence and confirmed owners.
Show group A at 8/10 and group B at 0/2 beside the aggregate 8/12. Neither the small group results nor the aggregate establish calibrated future forecasts. Aggregate observed fraction is 8/12≈66.7%, versus a mean supplied prediction of 80%. Group A’s observed fraction happens to match 0.8; group B’s does not. Twelve outcomes, especially a two-case subgroup, cannot establish stable calibration. All cases and probabilities are invented; no subgroup competence or product model claim is supported.
Put the outline to work
- Retain the declared grouping. Check: A and B membership is recorded independently of outcomes.
- Compute denominators visibly. Check: Group results use ten and two; aggregate uses twelve without averaging group percentages equally.
- Bound the calibration interpretation. Check: Mismatch is a descriptive finding needing more justified evaluation, not proof about people or future tasks.
From a useful outline to team work
Explore TeamBoostAI for your team
Use the owned checks and downloaded brief to discuss this planning decision alongside your TeamBoostAI tasks. Confirm available fields, roles and account features separately. The example is manual; it does not calculate live analytics, create work or run an experiment in the product. Confirm the workflows available in your account before adopting this outline.
Request TeamBoostAI access
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Questions about this workflow
May I average 80% and 0% into 40%?
Not as the case-weighted overall fraction: the groups have different sizes.
Is A proven calibrated?
No. A single small observed match at one supplied probability is insufficient.
Does this create tasks in the product?
No. The brief is a manual planning resource. Use the product access link to check onboarding and the workflows available in your account.