{
  "example_kind": "original synthetic manual planning case",
  "slug": "estimate-correlated-scenario-range",
  "title": "Combine estimates with shared scenario assumptions",
  "scenario": "Synthetic planning case: Tasks A and B share an external readiness condition. Under the normal scenario their durations are three and four days; under the delayed scenario five and seven. They execute sequentially.",
  "layout": "network",
  "dataset": {
    "heading": "Inspect the invented case records",
    "headers": [
      "Joint scenario",
      "A days",
      "B days",
      "Sequential total"
    ],
    "rows": [
      [
        "Normal shared condition",
        "3",
        "4",
        "7"
      ],
      [
        "Delayed shared condition",
        "5",
        "7",
        "12"
      ],
      [
        "Mixed input draft",
        "3",
        "7",
        "10: not a declared joint scenario"
      ]
    ]
  },
  "derivation": "Normal total=3+4=7; delayed total=5+7=12. Ten is arithmetically possible from the mixed numbers but has no declared scenario meaning in this supplied model.",
  "result": "The supplied joint scenarios produce seven or twelve model days. Keep their shared condition visible; mixing normal A with delayed B is not one of the two declared joint scenarios.",
  "boundary": "The decision preserves joint scenario consistency when combining task estimates.",
  "limitations": "Scenario dependence is a stated assumption. Actual distributions, resource constraints and other cases are unverified.",
  "sources": [
    "forecast"
  ],
  "tasks": [
    [
      "Identify the shared premise",
      "Planning owner",
      "Both task durations depend on the same named readiness condition."
    ],
    [
      "Combine compatible cases",
      "Estimator",
      "Seven and twelve retain complete joint scenarios rather than independently selected endpoints."
    ],
    [
      "Check missing scenarios",
      "Receiving lead",
      "Any mixed or other case requires its own input evidence before expanding the model."
    ]
  ],
  "faqs": [
    [
      "Does this estimate a statistical correlation coefficient?",
      "No. It declares shared scenario dependence; no population correlation is measured."
    ],
    [
      "Are seven and twelve the complete real-world bounds?",
      "No. They are the two supplied model cases, not proof that other outcomes cannot occur."
    ]
  ],
  "method_references": [
    {
      "id": "forecast",
      "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice — accuracy",
      "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/accuracy.html",
      "scope": "Genuine held-out forecast and point-error evaluation context. Binary scoring examples use their own explicit toy definitions; no real task model is validated."
    }
  ]
}