{
  "example_kind": "original synthetic manual planning case",
  "slug": "estimate-confidence-label-separation",
  "title": "Separate a planning range from a confidence claim",
  "scenario": "Synthetic planning case: A manual plan lists three duration scenarios: quick three days, nominal six and delayed nine. Its heading calls the three-to-nine envelope a 95% confidence interval without a probability model.",
  "layout": "protocol",
  "dataset": {
    "heading": "Inspect the invented case records",
    "headers": [
      "Supplied scenario",
      "Model duration",
      "What it establishes"
    ],
    "rows": [
      [
        "Quick",
        "3 days",
        "One assumed case"
      ],
      [
        "Nominal",
        "6 days",
        "One assumed case"
      ],
      [
        "Delayed",
        "9 days",
        "One assumed case"
      ]
    ]
  },
  "derivation": "The smallest supplied case is three and largest nine. Taking their envelope does not attach a probability to it; no sampling or predictive distribution is provided.",
  "result": "Label three-to-nine as the supplied scenario envelope. The records do not establish a 95% interval, a calibrated prediction range or a guaranteed worst case.",
  "boundary": "The artifact separates a constructed planning envelope from a probabilistic assurance statement.",
  "limitations": "These synthetic scenarios supply neither statistical confidence nor a hard upper bound on actual delivery.",
  "sources": [
    "forecast"
  ],
  "tasks": [
    [
      "Recover the range construction",
      "Estimator",
      "The endpoints come from named scenarios, not a fitted probability interval."
    ],
    [
      "Correct the evidence label",
      "Reviewer",
      "The 95% wording is removed or supported by a separately justified model."
    ],
    [
      "Define the decision using the range",
      "Planning lead",
      "The named cases guide contingency discussion without a universal assurance claim."
    ]
  ],
  "faqs": [
    [
      "Is a scenario envelope still useful?",
      "Yes. It can expose assumptions and decisions, as long as its limits remain explicit."
    ],
    [
      "Does a delayed case define the true worst case?",
      "No. Other unmodelled conditions may take longer."
    ]
  ],
  "method_references": [
    {
      "id": "forecast",
      "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice — accuracy",
      "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/accuracy.html",
      "scope": "Genuine held-out forecast and point-error evaluation context. Binary scoring examples use their own explicit toy definitions; no real task model is validated."
    }
  ]
}