# Separate a planning range from a confidence claim

Illustrative planning brief; no automatic product import.

Synthetic planning case: A manual plan lists three duration scenarios: quick three days, nominal six and delayed nine. Its heading calls the three-to-nine envelope a 95% confidence interval without a probability model.

## Decision

Label three-to-nine as the supplied scenario envelope. The records do not establish a 95% interval, a calibrated prediction range or a guaranteed worst case.

## Owned work

- Recover the range construction
  - Owner role: Estimator
  - Acceptance evidence: The endpoints come from named scenarios, not a fitted probability interval.
- Correct the evidence label
  - Owner role: Reviewer
  - Acceptance evidence: The 95% wording is removed or supported by a separately justified model.
- Define the decision using the range
  - Owner role: Planning lead
  - Acceptance evidence: The named cases guide contingency discussion without a universal assurance claim.

## Workflow

1. Recover the range construction. Check: The endpoints come from named scenarios, not a fitted probability interval.
2. Correct the evidence label. Check: The 95% wording is removed or supported by a separately justified model.
3. Define the decision using the range. Check: The named cases guide contingency discussion without a universal assurance claim.

## Judgment

These synthetic scenarios supply neither statistical confidence nor a hard upper bound on actual delivery.


## Filled manual planning note

Label three-to-nine as the supplied scenario envelope. The records do not establish a 95% interval, a calibrated prediction range or a guaranteed worst case. The smallest supplied case is three and largest nine. Taking their envelope does not attach a probability to it; no sampling or predictive distribution is provided. These synthetic scenarios supply neither statistical confidence nor a hard upper bound on actual delivery.


## Workflow questions

### Is a scenario envelope still useful?

Yes. It can expose assumptions and decisions, as long as its limits remain explicit.

### Does a delayed case define the true worst case?

No. Other unmodelled conditions may take longer.

## Product connection

Use the owned checks and downloaded brief to discuss this planning decision alongside your TeamBoostAI tasks. Confirm available fields, roles and account features separately. The example is manual; it does not calculate live analytics, create work or run an experiment in the product.

Confirm account availability before adopting this manual outline.

## Original worked case

Synthetic records, manual planning only. No account import or live analytics.

### Inspect the invented case records

Supplied scenario | Model duration | What it establishes
--- | --- | ---
Quick | 3 days | One assumed case
Nominal | 6 days | One assumed case
Delayed | 9 days | One assumed case

### Reasoning

The smallest supplied case is three and largest nine. Taking their envelope does not attach a probability to it; no sampling or predictive distribution is provided.

### Bounded result

Label three-to-nine as the supplied scenario envelope. The records do not establish a 95% interval, a calibrated prediction range or a guaranteed worst case.

### Distinct decision

The artifact separates a constructed planning envelope from a probabilistic assurance statement.

### Limits

These synthetic scenarios supply neither statistical confidence nor a hard upper bound on actual delivery.

### Definitions and method context

- Forecasting: Principles and Practice — accuracy — https://otexts.com/fpp3/accuracy.html — Genuine held-out forecast and point-error evaluation context. Binary scoring examples use their own explicit toy definitions; no real task model is validated.